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sacredceltic
Aug 30th 2010, 19:46
At present pace, the number of sentences in Tatoeba should double in under a year...The million sentences could be reached before next summer.
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FeuDRenais
Aug 30th 2010, 19:54
You did the calculations?
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sacredceltic
Aug 30th 2010, 20:03
Look at the timeline. We're currently adding a bit less than 2000 sentences/translations per day, and growing...
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FeuDRenais
Aug 30th 2010, 20:07
The growth should be exponential though. I bet you we double in 4-5 months. One million in 6 months.
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sacredceltic
Aug 30th 2010, 20:19
Not exponential, because it comes in burst. There was a sudden burst in July (and I was part of it) because emails were sent in different communities. But bursts tend to tame down. History shows that some very active users at some point stopped suddenly. We will see if current pace will be sustained, come september...
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FeuDRenais
Aug 30th 2010, 20:25
It should be exponential. Bursts are perturbations, which get evened out in the long run, like you said. I fit it, and the exponential model fits quite well.

According to this, Tatoeba may very well reach 1,000,000 sentences on the 1023rd day of its existence. C'est-à-dire, in 273 days, or roughly 9 months.

But that's an even-weighted model. If we give the recent few months more weight (though I don't know any justification for doing so), it might fall down to 5 months or even less...
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sacredceltic
Aug 30th 2010, 20:29
I don't think the current months are any representative. Many contributors here are students and they will be busy soon enough and also the weather in Europe this august is particularly shitty...
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FeuDRenais
Aug 30th 2010, 20:34
Then we'll probably be there in nine months.
sysko
Aug 30th 2010, 20:35
spoiler: this year I will have to take care of hundred of chinese students in China, and one of my attribution will be to teach them French, and to help the French students there learn chinese, so guess what I will use ...
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sacredceltic
Aug 30th 2010, 20:40
That could be a booster...at least for these languages.
I think also promoters of Tatoeba should take contact with defenders of minority languages such as Amerindians who sometimes are desperate to save their near defunct languages and could see Tatoeba as an opportunity with their young.
There are contacts to be taken with universities across America but also Australia, India, etc...
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sysko
Aug 30th 2010, 20:45
In fact, as I will have (I hope), some free times, I will take time to see native speakers of minority languages in China (mainly Shanghainese and other Wu dialect as I will be in this region)
But I agree, rather than a "absolute" adding rate, my "hope" is not to reach a million, 10 million, but to boost contributions in our current minority languages, and add new ones, especially endangered ones.
sysko
Aug 30th 2010, 20:40
but I agree with your analyse, I don't think it will become exponential, for some reason:
1 - as sacredceltic a lot of contributors have come in a burst, and we're still in the "high motivation" part, most of the time it last one month or two, and after their contribution rate drop, so it suppose not only new comers will come to "replace" them, but new ones too.
2 - I don't think for the present time tatoeba is able to support 10000 contributions a day ^^ (but I can be wrong, and I hope I'm wrong)
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FeuDRenais
Aug 30th 2010, 21:21
No, I still hold that it should be. The word "exponential" shouldn't be taken to mean that it follows some sort of super rapid growth. It just means that when taking all the data of Tatoeba's growth, from the day of its inception, plotting that data, and fitting the curve, the exponential fit works better than anything else. That's why there were so few contributions for such a long time, and then the steady growth in the past half-year or so.

Again, bursts play no role here. The fit ignores the bursts, since it looks at the entire two years.

10000/day is exactly what you might get on day 1023 (you did the calc, didn't you?)... Well, you have almost a year to build up the server.
FeuDRenais
Aug 30th 2010, 21:22
Anyway, maybe we can start a betting pool...
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FeuDRenais
Aug 30th 2010, 21:41
I say May 5, 2011.
FeuDRenais
Aug 30th 2010, 20:08
OK, you inspired me. I'm going to do it in Excel right now, and tell you when the million will come.
Scott
Aug 30th 2010, 20:08
Where can you see those statistics?
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sacredceltic
Aug 30th 2010, 20:16
on the home page.
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Scott
Aug 30th 2010, 20:35
Thanks
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sacredceltic
Aug 30th 2010, 22:23
Je ne pense pas, en dépit de toutes les bonnes volontés du monde, que le chiffre d'un million sera atteint en 4 mois...
Il faudrait doubler le rythme actuel à 3500 nouvelles phrases/traductions par jour, 120 x 3500 = 420 000 et ce serait tout juste suffisant...car on est même pas à 500.000
Alors à moins d'un miracle...
MUIRIEL
Aug 14th 2011, 00:34
BUMP for those who like history ;)

So, we continued on average "at present pace" and not exponantially growing.

And, above all: the weather in Europe wasn't better last year!
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sacredceltic
Aug 14th 2011, 09:30
Yeah, so as I correctly predicted, the million took just under a year to be reached...It will be reached today, actually!

And indeed, the weather is even shittier...
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MUIRIEL
Aug 14th 2011, 10:35
>as I correctly predicted
you should've used "should" or "will" instead of "could"...
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sacredceltic
Aug 14th 2011, 10:46
>the number of sentences in Tatoeba should double in under a year...
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MUIRIEL
Aug 14th 2011, 10:49
haha, yes, but in this sentence you precised "at present pace". So it was just a calculation.
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sacredceltic
Aug 14th 2011, 10:58
ah oui, en effet, je ne lis pas dans les boules de verre...excuse-moi de ne me servir que de mon cerveau...
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MUIRIEL
Aug 14th 2011, 11:09
je ne dis rien contre.
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sacredceltic
Aug 14th 2011, 11:13
étant mathématicienne, tu sais la différence entre « prédiction » et « divination »
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MUIRIEL
Aug 14th 2011, 11:43
tu n'as pas prédit que la million prendrait moins d'un ans. t'as prédit que SI CA CONTINUAIT À LA VITESSE ACTUELLE, la million prendrait moins d'un an.
ca fait une grande différence, c'est tout.
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sacredceltic
Aug 14th 2011, 13:53
oui oui...